Bitcoin (BTC) saw further losses on June 12 as thin weekend trading volumes fueled an ongoing sell-off.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Analyst likens risk asset ‘pump’ to 1929
With hours to go until the weekly close, the pair was in danger of resuming the losing streak, which had previously seen a record nine weeks of red candles in a row.
To avoid that outcome and put in a second “green” close, BTC/USD needed to gain over $2,000 from current spot price, which at the time of writing was $27,400.
BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
With support levels failing to change the mood thanks to the thinner liquidity during the weekend’s “out-of-hours” trading, analysts feared that a retest of May’s ten-month lows was due.
“Well, Bitcoin couldn’t hold $29.3K and started dropping down some more. Looking to see how the $28.5K area is going to react,” Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe wrote in his latest BTC update on June 11.
“If that doesn’t hold, $26/24K on the cards.”
Amid continuing talk of “capitulation” across cryptoassets, others focused on the fate of highly-correlated stock markets. Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, risk assets more broadly could already have seen peak exuberance in the past two years.
“If the stock market keeps going down, virtually everything will have peaked,” he told Twitter followers.
“Just some normal reversion can feel like a crash and the 2020-21 risk asset pump may go down in history like 1929 and 1999.”
At the day’s lows near $27,000, meanwhile, Bitcoin traded the closest to its May “mini” capitulation event since that day of turmoil took place at the hands of the Terra LUNA implosion.
For many, the question was thus how to know where the true macro price floor for Bitcoin could lie.
“If price reaches low 20ks, you will see most of CT calling for 10k or even lower. That will be the bottom confirmation,” popular Twitter account Il Capo of Crypto argued.
Ethereum makes key realized price crossover
For altcoins, meanwhile, the picture was more precarious.
A look at the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap revealed heavier daily losses than BTC/USD, with some shedding over 10%.
Realized price refers to the combined price at which each token last moved, and its breach put ETH at increased risk of panic-based capitulation. Bitcoin’s realized price, at around $24,000, was barely touched during the May dip.
“With the price declines over the weekend, the Ethereum market has fallen below the $ETH Realized Price of $1,781,” on-chain analytics firm Glassnode commented on an accompanying chart.
“This means the market is holding an average unrealized loss of -18.4%. The Realized Price of ETH 2.0 deposits is higher at $2,404, with an unrealized loss of -39.6%.”
Ethereum realized price vs. ETH/USD annotated chart. Source: TradingView
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